Credit Default Swap (CDS)
A derivative that pays out if a borrower defaults — effectively insurance on a bond, with its premium acting as a live market price of credit risk.
Formula
Approximate CDS Spread ≈ Default Probability × (1 − Recovery Rate)
A credit default swap (CDS) is a derivative contract that transfers the default risk of a reference entity (a company or government) from one party to another. The protection buyer pays a periodic premium (the CDS spread, in basis points); if a defined credit event occurs — bankruptcy, missed payment, restructuring — the protection seller compensates the buyer for the loss. It functions as insurance on a bond.
The CDS spread is a clean, continuously traded measure of default risk that often moves faster than cash bond spreads. Widening CDS signals deteriorating creditworthiness; sovereign CDS (on countries) is a closely watched gauge of fiscal stress. CDS can be traded without owning the underlying bond — a "naked" position used to speculate on or hedge credit deterioration.
The practical caution: CDS amplified the 2008 crisis because sellers like AIG wrote enormous protection without capital to back it. Post-crisis reforms pushed standardized CDS through central clearinghouses, but the instrument remains a powerful — and watched — credit risk barometer.
Related Terms
Corporate Bond
Debt issued by a company to raise capital, paying a coupon above Treasuries to compensate investors for credit risk.
BeginnerCredit Rating
A graded assessment by agencies like Moody's, S&P, and Fitch of an issuer's ability to repay debt — the standardized scale for default risk.
BeginnerCredit Spread
The yield difference between a corporate (or other non-government) bond and a Treasury of the same maturity — the market's price for credit risk.
IntermediateDefault Risk
The probability that a bond issuer will fail to make scheduled interest or principal payments — the core credit risk in fixed income.
IntermediateHigh-Yield Bond
Bonds rated below investment grade (BB+/Ba1 or lower) — offering higher yields to compensate for elevated default risk.
Intermediate