Fair Value (Futures vs Index)
The theoretical futures price implied by the spot index, cost of carry, and expected dividends until expiration.
Formula
Futures Fair Value = Spot × (1 + r × t) − Dividends(t)
Fair value is the theoretical price at which a futures contract should trade given the current spot index level, the risk-free interest rate, and dividends expected to be paid by index constituents before expiry. It is the no-arbitrage price at which holding futures is equivalent to holding the underlying basket.
Formula: Futures Fair Value = Spot × (1 + r×t) − Dividends, where r is the risk-free rate and t is time to expiry in years. When the actual futures price exceeds fair value, index arbitrage (selling futures, buying basket) pushes the price back toward fair value, and vice versa.
In practice, CNBC and Bloomberg quote the futures premium/discount to fair value each morning — it signals whether stock index futures are indicating a higher or lower open relative to the prior close.
Related Terms
Basis (Futures)
The price difference between the spot (cash) price of an underlying and its corresponding futures price.
IntermediateES (E-mini S&P 500)
The world's most liquid equity index futures contract — tracks the S&P 500, $50 per point, expires quarterly.
BeginnerIndex Futures
Futures contracts whose underlying is a stock market index — settled in cash against the final index value at expiration.
Beginner