MRPNL

Herd Mentality

Following the crowd into a trade because "everyone else is doing it" rather than because your own analysis supports it.

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Herd mentality is the tendency to copy the actions of a larger group, abandoning independent analysis for the perceived safety of consensus. It is deeply human — in evolutionary terms, following the herd kept you alive. In markets, it often kills your account.

Herds are most dangerous at extremes. When everyone is bullish, the crowd is already fully invested — there are no new buyers left to push price higher. The herd move is often the last move. Late herd entrants are the exit liquidity for early entrants.

Independent analysis, a contrary reflex ("why is everyone so sure about this?"), and sizing positions based on your own conviction rather than social proof are the antidotes. The most profitable trades are often uncomfortable precisely because the herd disagrees with them.

Example

A Reddit thread goes viral about a stock "going to the moon." Thousands pile in based on the thread. The stock doubles over three days. Then the early holders sell into the herd's buying. The late arrivals who followed the crowd are left holding losses.

#bias#behavior#sentiment

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