Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Monthly count of new U.S. jobs added outside the farm sector — the most volatility-generating data release on the macro calendar.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is a monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics release measuring the net change in U.S. payroll employment. It includes government and nonprofit-sector jobs, and excludes farm/agricultural workers, private household employees, the self-employed and unincorporated proprietors, unpaid family workers, and active-duty military. It is released on the first Friday of every month and consistently triggers the largest short-term volatility spikes in forex, rates, and equities.
A blowout number tightens rate-cut expectations, strengthens the dollar, and lifts Treasury yields. A miss does the opposite. Traders also watch the accompanying average hourly earnings figure — wage growth above trend is inflationary and can override a weak headline number.
Example
When NFP printed +353K vs. +185K expected in January 2024, EUR/USD dropped 70 pips instantly, two-year yields rose 18 bps, and rate-cut bets for March were almost entirely priced out within the hour.
Related Terms
Consumer Confidence
A survey-based measure of households' optimism about the economy — a leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives ~70% of U.S. GDP.
BeginnerFederal Reserve
The U.S. central bank — its rate decisions and forward guidance move global markets more than any other single institution.
BeginnerFOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee — the Fed body that sets U.S. monetary policy, meeting eight times per year to vote on the federal funds rate target.
IntermediateInterest Rate
The cost of borrowing money, set or influenced by central banks — the single most powerful lever in macroeconomics.
BeginnerJobless Claims
Weekly count of people filing for unemployment benefits — the highest-frequency read on labor-market health.
BeginnerUnemployment Rate
The share of the labor force actively seeking work but unable to find it — a key input to central bank employment mandates.
Beginner