MRPNL

Real Yield

A bond's nominal yield minus expected inflation — the true inflation-adjusted return a bondholder earns for lending money.

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Formula

Real Yield ≈ Nominal Yield − Expected Inflation (Fisher approximation)

Real yield is what you actually earn after accounting for inflation. A 10-year Treasury yielding 4.5% with 2.5% inflation has a real yield of approximately +2.0%. If inflation is 5%, the real yield is -0.5% — the investor is losing purchasing power in real terms.

The U.S. Treasury issues TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), whose principal adjusts with CPI — providing a direct market quote for real yields. The 10-year TIPS real yield is the most watched measure of the real cost of capital.

Real yields matter for gold (which has no yield): rising real yields make gold less attractive relative to Treasuries, applying downward pressure. Falling or negative real yields historically correlate with gold outperformance. Real yields also directly affect equity valuations via the equity risk premium math.

#fixed-income#inflation#macro

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