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CommoditiesIntermediate

Spot-Futures Basis

The difference between the spot price and a futures price for the same commodity — the numerical expression of carry, storage, and convenience yield.

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Formula

Basis = Spot Price − Futures Price

The spot-futures basis is the arithmetic difference between the cash (spot) price and the futures price: Basis = Spot − Futures. In a normal contango market, the basis is negative (spot is lower than futures). In backwardation, the basis is positive.

The basis narrows (converges to zero) as the futures contract approaches delivery — a process called basis convergence. Traders who hold physical commodity and hedge with futures lock in a profit equal to the basis at hedge initiation, assuming convergence occurs as expected.

Unexpected basis moves (basis risk) are the primary residual risk for hedgers in commodity markets. A producer who sold futures to hedge may find that their local cash price diverges from the futures benchmark at delivery, creating profit or loss beyond the hedge.

#commodities#futures#hedging

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