MRPNL

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Holding a losing trade because of how much you've already lost in it — as if the market cares what you paid.

Card view

The sunk cost fallacy is letting past, irrecoverable losses influence current decisions. In trading: "I can't sell now, I've already lost 30% — I'll wait for it to come back." The 30% loss is gone. It cannot be un-lost by holding. The only question is: given current conditions and current price, is this position worth holding?

Sunk cost thinking keeps traders in zombie positions for months, tying up capital that could be deployed in live setups, and inflating paper losses into realised catastrophes. It is loss aversion's close cousin.

The clean mental reset: "If I had cash right now and no position, would I buy this asset at this price with this thesis?" If the answer is no, exit. Your entry price is irrelevant to that question.

Example

A trader is down $3,000 on a biotech position after a failed trial. The thesis is dead. But they hold on because "I've put so much into this already." The sunk cost is keeping them in a position they would never initiate today.

#bias#cognitive#emotion

Related Terms