WASDE Report
The USDA's monthly supply-demand report for major US and world crops and livestock — the single biggest scheduled catalyst for grain and oilseed futures.
The WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) is published monthly by the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board, typically between the 8th and 12th of each month at 12:00 PM ET. It is the benchmark balance-sheet report for grains (corn, wheat, soybeans), oilseeds, cotton, sugar, and livestock — combining US and world production, consumption, trade, and most importantly ending stocks.
Markets react to the surprise versus pre-report trade estimates, not the absolute number. The headline figure traders watch is ending stocks and the derived stocks-to-use ratio: a smaller-than-expected ending-stocks number signals tightness and is bullish; a larger number is bearish. A single WASDE can move corn or soybean futures by the daily limit.
WASDE is forecast-heavy and gets revised every month as the crop year unfolds, so a number is only as good as the assumptions behind it. The August and the January reports carry extra weight because they incorporate fresh survey-based US crop production estimates.
Example
Pre-report trade guesses peg US corn ending stocks at 2.10 billion bushels. The WASDE prints 1.87 billion — a 230-million-bushel bullish surprise driven by a cut to yield. December corn futures gap up 18 cents/bu at the release; on a 5,000-bushel CBOT contract that is a $900 move per contract in the first minutes.
Related Terms
Agricultural Commodities
Farm-produced goods traded on futures exchanges — grains (corn, wheat, soybeans), oilseeds, and livestock — with prices driven by weather and seasonal crop cycles.
BeginnerSeasonality
Recurring, calendar-driven price patterns in commodities caused by predictable cycles in supply (harvest) and demand (weather-driven consumption).
IntermediateSofts
Agricultural commodities that are grown rather than mined or extracted — primarily coffee, sugar, cocoa, cotton, and orange juice, traded on ICE Futures.
IntermediateSupply and Demand Balance
The net difference between commodity production and consumption in a given period — a surplus weakens prices; a deficit strengthens them.
Intermediate