Expectancy Simulator

Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade over many trades, shown here as a fraction of balance. A positive number means the strategy makes money in the long run; a negative one means it loses, no matter how disciplined you are.

The equity sim is a Monte Carlo — it rolls a random win or loss for each trade weighted by your win rate. One run is a single possible future. Hit Randomize Run repeatedly to see the full spread of outcomes the same edge can produce.

The lowest win rate that still breaks even at your reward:risk ratio. At 2:1 reward:risk you only need to win about 33% of the time; at 1:1 it is exactly 50%. Win above the line and you are profitable, below it and you bleed even with perfect execution.

From probability, not the simulation — the expected longest run of consecutive losses across N trades. It tells you the cold streak to plan for so a normal run of bad luck does not make you abandon a sound system.

It is the share of your current balance staked on each trade, not a fixed dollar figure. Wins grow the next position and losses shrink it — fixed-fractional sizing. A higher risk % compounds faster but deepens drawdowns and raises the odds of ruin.

Yes — set the account balance to your drawdown allowance and watch Max Drawdown against the firm’s limit. If realistic runs routinely breach it, your risk % is too high for that account.