Costco Price Targets Rise After Earnings—Traffic and Membership Growth Slow

Costco's third-quarter earnings met Wall Street expectations, and several analysts raised their price targets. Beneath that surface, however, slowing traffic and weaker membership additions introduced a note of caution into an otherwise bullish consensus.

Analysts Lift Targets but Flag Slower Growth

Three major firms adjusted their Costco outlooks following the Q3 report, each landing in a different place on conviction.

Truist moved its target to $1,011 from $977 and held a Hold rating. The firm views slowing membership growth as Costco's one meaningful soft spot, even as it acknowledged the company's ability to deliver consistent same-store growth in the mid-single digits against a $300 billion top line.

Roth Capital took a more skeptical stance, raising its target modestly to $781 from $769 while keeping a Sell. Its concern centers on new member additions, which came in above 800,000 but fell well short of the 1.1 million that marks the typical pace. Renewal rates held steady at 89.7% globally and 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada, yet U.S. traffic growth decelerated to 1.8% from 2.4% the prior quarter.

BofA was the most constructive, lifting its target to $1,200 from $1,185 with a Buy rating. The firm described the results as largely in line and raised its fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate by $0.10 on a slightly improved selling, general, and administrative expense outlook.

Across 36 analysts tracked by Koyfin, 22 rate the stock Buy or higher, 19 Hold, and two Sell or more.

The Earnings Beneath the Headlines

Revenue came in at $69.15 billion, narrowly missing the $69.2 billion consensus. Earnings of $4.9 per share matched expectations. U.S. comparable sales, excluding gasoline, grew 6.8%.

Those numbers are solid. The concern is trajectory. When traffic growth slows and new member additions fall below historical norms at the same time, it raises questions about whether demand is plateauing or simply normalizing after an extended run.

When This Does Not Work

Costco's model depends on membership volume compounding year after year. If new sign-ups continue to undershoot the long-term average while traffic decelerates, even strong renewal rates may not be enough to sustain the growth rate the market currently prices in. The risk is not a collapse—it is a repricing of expectations.

Costco shares have gained more than 94% year to date. Retail sentiment has shifted to extremely bullish from bullish, with message volumes climbing to high from normal within a single day. The stock carries momentum, but momentum without accelerating fundamentals eventually meets resistance.